With South Africa’s National and Provincial Elections taking place next week, 29 May 2024, F.I.R.M. stakeholders raised questions and concerns about security risks in the lead-up to the elections, as well as on the day. To answer some of these questions and assist in preparation for election day, F.I.R.M. hosted and Information Sharing Session with Specialist Risk Consultant Marisa Lourenço, on Friday, 17 May.
The upcoming elections are widely touted as being a “watershed moment” for South African politics, with media outlets locally and abroad suggesting that the ANC could lose its grip on power, and that an era of coalition governments is upon us.
At our Information Sharing Session, Marisa Lourenço indicated that – despite pre-election poll results – dramatic change to the South African political landscape is unlikely. “We underestimate the ANC’s power at our peril,” Lourenço said, citing the exclusion of rural opinions from polls, widespread voter apathy and the perceived lack of a viable alternative to the ruling party as some of the key factors that will keep the ANC in power.
“The ANC could lose their 50% + 1 majority, but if they do it will be by a small margin and they will remain the largest party in parliament,” she said. Should a coalition be required to give the ANC it’s majority, Lourenço believes a coalition with a smaller party like the IFP is the strongest possibility. “An ANC/DA coalition is not out of the question, though,” she said. “This would be business’ preferred outcome if a coalition is necessary.”
Though a major upheaval is unlikely to result from this year’s election, there are still security risks that we should be aware of and prepared for. These risks are not unusual during election time, though it is uncertain how severely they are likely to manifest. The three key risks are:
- Uptick in crime – though crime reporting tends to increase around election time – making it important to maintain a balanced of view – Lourenço does expect there to be an increase in crime before, during and after elections. As our police services are redeployed to polling stations for security, it becomes easier for criminals to act elsewhere.
“50 000 police are expected to be deployed to polling stations, taking away from already limited resources and giving criminals an opportunity that they don’t usually have,” she explains. “There is also an increased risk of armed retaliation from police during this time, which could put civilians at risk.”
Petty theft, residential burglaries and assault – which are common crimes in South Africa anyway – are the also the most likely to increase during elections. In Gauteng, robbery with aggravated circumstances, carjackings, cash-in-transit heists and non-residential robberies as well as crime at taxi ranks are also likely to increase. Crime against critical infrastructure – such as cable theft – has also been on the rise in recent months, and we can expect to see this trend continue. Lastly, kidnappings (targeting high-net-worth individuals) and express kidnappings (not always high-net-worth individuals) for ransom are also on the rise across the country due to widening social inequality.
- Sporadic episodes of unrest – Many people are concerned that there could be a repeat of the 2021 riots when Jacob Zuma was incarcerated. Lourenço says this doesn’t seem likely to happen during these elections. “Should mass protest action take place, it’s likely to be after the results are announced and not to the same scale we saw in 2021.” She says.
Service delivery protests in major urban centres and low-income areas are likely to be more acute during elections, when these types of action draw more attention. “From a safety point of view, watch out for blocked roads and have contingency plans in place to avoid protest action in specific locations,” Lourenço advises.
Another potential driver of unrest is xenophobia, where foreign nationals are targeted because they are seen as taking job opportunities away from South Africans. “This sentiment is supported by some of the parties contesting this election,” Lourenço points out. “Though the scale is hard to predict, it does remain a possibility. After the elections, an ANC/DA coalition could spark protests and unrest, most likely driven by the EFF in the areas where they hold support.”
- Misinformation and disinformation – Misinformation – where people unknowingly share inaccurate information, rumours or fake news – and Disinformation – which is the deliberate spreading of malicious, false information with a specific aim e.g. to discredit or garner support – is a risk ahead of elections. These two factors were major contributors to the severity of the 2021 riots, spreading so quickly that traditional media couldn’t stay on top of things. There is a risk that social media platforms could be used to fuel unrest surrounding these elections. “The public has become more aware of this risk since 2021, but it is still necessary to maintain this awareness,” Lourenço says. “As companies and organisations, we must be careful of what we share on our own verified communications platforms. It is an acute risk during elections but is not likely to spark the same level of protest action we saw in 2021.”
If you’d like to watch the full Information Sharing Session, click here. As always, F.I.R.M. will ensure that our communication channels are sharing accurate information about security risks in our areas.